When a 2017 Cambridge study was published on the effect of Britain's exit from the European Union on the UK's wine market, the opposite winds expected, the currency value and a declining vortex in local wine consumption. Seven years later, with new reports from the Wine & Spirit Trade Association (WSTA) and the international organization of Vine and Wine (OIV), it is time to see the progress of these predictions.
The Cambridge model expects a decrease in the UK wine consumption due to slow economic growth and the weakest pound, making imports more expensive. The latest WSTA report confirms that wine consumption has already decreased, but it seems that the perpetrator is not only Britain's exit from the European Union but also an uncompromising tax height. In 2022, the wine and spiritual drink industry in the United Kingdom contributed 76.3 billion pounds in its total rotation, with a large part of that directly to the treasury.
Meanwhile, the OIV 2024 report draws bleak pictures of global wine trends: wine production decreased by 2 % of 2023, which represents the lowest global production since 1961. Europe has been particularly difficult, with climate change strikes across France and Spain. It makes imports more expensive for British buyers.
Britain's exit tax from the European Union on imports
The 2017 study indicated that the customs tariff will only have a simple impact on the total wine market, compared to the largest impact of the weakest decline and low income. In fact, this is proven accurate. Wine imports in the UK are still thrived, but they are allowed. The WSTA report revealed that 39 % of industrial sales now comes from wholesalers, importers and distributors, which reflects the continuous importance of the United Kingdom as a global wine center.
However, the conversion predictions in the post -Britain's exit from the European Union did not play exactly as expected. The study expected to increase imports of non -European wine producers, such as Australia, South Africa and Chile, as European wine became relatively more expensive. However, OIV data shows that Italy is still the largest resource in the United Kingdom – instead of expanding its scope, wine exports in Australia faced the opposite winds, which led to low production.
British wine -wine: silver lining?
One of the most optimistic projections of the 2017 study was that Britain's exit from the European Union could stimulate the production of local wine, as the weakest pound made sparkling English wine more competitive. While wine production in the UK is still a decrease in the ideal ocean, English wine factories have already gained traction, especially in sparkling wine. However, even this growth is reduced due to lack of employment and uncertainty in the climate.
The 2017 study was right to determine the effects of currency and income as the main obstacles, rather than customs tariffs alone. Meanwhile, consumers in the United Kingdom continue to write the bill literally and metaphorically, as wine becomes another victim of economic turmoil in Britain.
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