The study predicts growth in UK wine production due to climate change

New research reveals how climate change is likely to increase the potential for wine production in the UK – with conditions expected to resemble those in popular growing regions in France and Germany.

Over the past 20 years, climate change has contributed to the growth of the UK's vineyard area – which now includes more than 800 vineyards – and the production of award-winning wines, as well as a shift in wine style towards sparkling wines.

Now, a team of researchers from the University of East Anglia (UEA), the London School of Economics, Vinescapes Ltd and Weatherquest Ltd have charted the potential of the sector over the next 20 years. Drawing on the latest detailed climate forecasts, they have developed a sophisticated ability to model and plan the best opportunities for grape growing and winemaking in the UK.

Their findings, published today in the journal OENO One, show how the climate of an area larger than England and Wales is expected to become suitable for reliably growing sparkling wine grape varieties, and how the potential for producing high-quality wines is rapidly emerging.

“We have seen UK viticulture expand by almost 400 percent from 761 to 3,800 hectares between 2004 and 2021,” said Professor Steve Dorling, lead researcher at the University of East Anglia, from the School of Environmental Sciences and forecasting firm Weatherquest Ltd.

“During that period, the warm climate supported more reliable yields and quality of Pinot Noir and Chardonnay grape varieties – these varieties are blended in the production of Champagne-style sparkling wines.

“Warm, dry UK growing seasons such as 2018, with below average disease problems in vines, resulted in a record 15.6 million bottles being produced, and these growing conditions are already becoming and are expected to become more common.”

The Climate Resilience in the UK Wine Sector (CREWS-UK) project was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council as part of the UK Climate Resilience programme. The researchers took into account how often growing conditions in the UK are expected to be climatically similar to those recently seen in the famous sparkling wine-producing and still wine-producing regions of France's Champagne and Burgundy regions, and in Baden in Germany.

Their findings highlight that since the 1980s there has already been a temperature rise of more than 1°C during the growing season in much of the south-east and east of England, a shift that has been one of the key enablers of growth and diversity change in the UK viticultural sector. During this time.

Lead author of the study, Dr Alistair Nisbet, of vineyard consultancy Vinescapes Ltd, said: “This work is the first of its kind in the UK and is a unique combination of climate change science, viticulture and wine expertise.

“We found that large areas within England and Wales are expected to become warmer by 2040 by up to an additional 1.4°C during the growing season. This expands the area suitable for Pinot Noir for sparkling wine production, but will also open up new areas higher within the temperature range.” Suitable for the growing season to produce Pinot Noir and to grow varieties such as Sauvignon Blanc, Riesling, Semillon and more disease resistant varieties, which are rarely grown in the UK at present.

“Furthermore, anyone considering investing in a UK vineyard can now benefit from this knowledge by providing advice on the best locations, both now and under future climate change conditions.”

The team used 2018 UK Climate Outlook scenarios to assess the suitability of future diversity and wine style in the UK, the potential for investments in viticulture, and the sector's adaptation and resilience over the period 2021-2040.

Areas in East Anglia, Lincolnshire, south-central England, north-east Wales and the coastal areas of south-west England and south Wales are expected to have 2018 'conditions' over the period 2021-2040 in 60-75 per cent of years, meaning the exceptional model year 2018 will be Most common.

Meanwhile, large areas of south-east and eastern England are expected to reach a suitable scale for red Pinot Noir production. While Pinot Noir for sparkling wine is already successfully grown in the UK, expected increases in growing season temperatures now indicate a new and growing opportunity for Pinot Noir production in some regions.

Dr Nisbet said: “We have shown that in some regions of the UK, the abundant 2018 variety will become the norm, and the Champagne grape-growing temperatures of 1999-2018 are expected to occur across an expanded region of England during 2021-2040. In certain years, some regions of the UK may experience seasonal growing climates similar to those that have contributed to the production of the best modern Champagnes, as well as supporting the growing potential of Burgundy and Baden-style red wines.

However, the researchers warn that significant challenges remain, saying the UK's rapidly changing climate requires the industry to remain flexible and not “locked in” to production that cannot adapt to changing growing conditions.

Professor Dorling said: “Exciting times lie ahead for the UK wine sector, but our results underscored the challenge of creating wine identities and brands, particularly those closely linked to varietals and wine styles, in a rapidly changing climate.”

In addition, the weather in Britain can still be unpredictable, as a 2012 vintage showed when much of the UK's grape production was lost due to a very cold and wet flowering period. Year-to-year climate fluctuations, including the risk of early season frost, will remain, even if long-term trends are good.

Sustainable investment decisions in vineyards and wineries will also continue to require careful analysis of all risks associated with the environment and the growing market.

Dr Nesbitt said: “Through our consultancy services, our teams at Vinescapes and Weatherquest are privileged to support the sustainable growth of the UK wine sector and we are very grateful to WineGB, the industry body, for facilitating all the engagements we have had with those working in viticulture and wine production throughout the project CREWS-UK.”